The Cincinnati Bearcats returned to the NCAA Tournament in 2011 for the first time since the 2005 season. For many, their return to the big dance also marked the return of a Bearcat program that had fallen on hard times after their streak of 14 consecutive trips to college basketball’s biggest stage ended in 2005.
Cincinnati head coach Mick Cronin has his squad on the bubble for an NCAA berth.
If the Bearcats hope to continue their success and reach their second consecutive NCAA Tournament, however, they still have some work to do.
The Bearcats were a 12 seed in ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi’s latest bracket, which preceded their convincing road win over Saint Johns on Wednesday night.
Lunardi, who only recently moved the Bearcats inside of his main bracket as opposed to placing them in a play-in game, lists the Bearcats odds of avoiding an extra game at an even 50 percent.
Lunardi believes for the Bearcats to avoid Selection Sunday heartbreak, there are three keys.
“Most importantly for Cincinnati they need to stay above .500 in conference,” Lunardi said in an email. “They’ll also need to avoid another bad loss (Providence or South Florida) and make sure they do not lose to a lesser seed in the Big East Tournament.”
The Bearcats took care of business against St. Johns on Wednesday; one of the teams Lunardi didn’t believe they could afford a loss against. Still, games against Providence at home and South Florida on the road could prove to be difficult for a team that tends to play to the level of its opponent.
The Bearcats currently sit in an interesting position. On paper, it appears the Bearcats could have a difficult time moving certain numbers (RPI: 94, SOS: 171, Out-of-Conference SOS: 327) to a level that would look attractive to the selection committee.
Still, 20+ wins and a top-5 finish in the Big East Conference, all of which are attainable, would be tough to leave out of the NCAA Tournament. The Bearcats would make it even more difficult on the committee to leave them out by winning more than one game in the Big East Tournament.
It would also be impossible to rule out the possibility of the Bearcats securing the fourth seed in the Big East Tournament with wins over Louisville and Marquette. They currently sit in a tie for fifth place and are only 1.5 games out of second place.
As of now, the Bearcats have notched three very solid wins on their resume with road wins over Georgetown and Connecticut and a win at home against Notre Dame. They also have one awful loss on their resume in Presbyterian, albeit long ago.
As the familiar saying goes, the Bearcats have been a riddle wrapped in an enigma throughout the entire year. There was a stretch where it appeared the Bearcats had established themselves as one of the top three teams in the conference, but that was followed by a three-game losing streak that had fans scratching their heads.
Until the Bearcats find a way to begin a new streak of wins, the committee may also view them as trending down. Finishing strong is just as, if not more important than, starting fast.
The scenarios are endless for the Bearcats. As of now, it would appear as though the Bearcats are on the inside looking out, albeit with very little room for error. Looking at the field, though, one thing becomes very clear.
Of the teams currently listed as “in,” there are some interesting cases. You have Seton Hall, who has lost six consecutive games and is falling well below .500 in the big East, you have North Carolina State who is just 2-6 over teams currently in the field, and you have Arizona who has 4 losses in a Pac-10 Conference that has been nothing shy of awful.
What does all of that mean? It means that the bubble is wide open. It means that the opportunity is there. It means that should the Bearcats fail to reach the tournament in March, they’ll have only one group of individuals to blame – themselves.
Ryan Pence
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Who Dey Time said...
Today's update has UC up to a #11 seed. Also, according to the Nitty Gritty page, the Bearcats are the highest of the four 11-seeds which means that, at present, there are 9 at large teams that are IN the tournament but rated below the 'Cats.
In short, UC appears to be in a bit better position than what some think and a win tomorrow (Marquette currently a 4-seed) would certainly further solidify UC's position as an at large team and that one individual loss will not be a killer.
Things are starting to look better and better, IMO. Gotta keep it up though!
http://espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology
Ryan Pence said...
The biggest issue here is that the highest team ever allowed in the tournament since the major changes to the RPI in 2005 has an RPI in the mid-to-low 60's. UC isn't even close to that, and without winning 22 games in the regular season their RPI won't even crack 80. That's a big red flag when you add in their SOS and their bad losses early in the season. If they finish in the top 5 of the Big East, I don't see how they can get left out. Still, I'd like them to finish strong. A loss to Providence, Seton Hall, or South Florida would be bad.
Canuckcat said...
The pundits are saying that Murray State may not get in if they lose to St Mary's this weekend. Their RPI is so bad that even with 2 losses they are up against it. If they don't win the OVC Tourney, they could be cooked. They are the #7 team in the country with 31 days left and they might not get in.
Ryan Pence
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Ryan Pence
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dp3113 said...
thats what jay bilas says they should look at, and we hope they look at...unfortunately, bilas doesn't oversee the committee and i think they weigh the "body of work" barometer moreso than the "who are you capable of beating" barometer. unfortunately, uc's body of work is far from overwhelming or convincing.
Ryan Pence
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