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It appears increasing likely that only 3 teams from the Big East will reach bowl eligibiity.
UCONN and USF - each have 6 losses and still play us, so I will chalk each of them up for 7 losses.
PITT - has 5 losses, but since they played Youngstown St and Webber St, they need to win the last three. Remaining 3 @UCONN, home against Rutgers, and @USF, you can't like their changes for bowl eligibility.
Temple - has 3 wins with three more to play. CIN, @Arym, Cuse. Can't like their chances to sweep either.
Cuse - has to win 2 of 3 with Louisville, @mizz and @Temple. They probably have the best chance, but still wouldn't bet on them.
That leaves Lousivlle, Rutgers and UC as the likely only bowl eligible teams in the Big East. That means worst case (and most likely) is the Belk Bowl. Obviously we cheer for Rutgers and Louisville's opponents for the balance of the season. Rutgers has pretty tough road ahead @UC, @Pitt and home against Louisville. I would much prefer the bowl game in Orlando against Miami vs. the bowl game in Charlotte against Duke (Palm's current projections attached). If we can beat Rutgers and hold win games we should against Temple, USF and UCONN we could be in the unique situation of hoping for Rutgers to beat Louisville so we can share the league crown but also likely relegating us to a lesser bowl (Belk if 3-way tie and RAB if we Rutgers losses to Louisville). Obviously if we can get Lousivlle two losses and win out, that is the best scenario, but that is a pretty big long shot at this point.
On a semi-related Big East note, SDSU beat Boise in Idaho last night. Palm had Boise in a BCS game until this week. Would have been nice to have 2 schools from next year's Big East in BCS games, but congrats to the Aztecs for winning in a very difficult place to play.
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I don't think Pitt needs seven, since they lost to one of the FCS schools. I believe the rule is that you can only count one FCS victory towards bowl qualification. Since they lost to one of them, it's not an issue.
Good thread. You are correct that the Big East may only get three teams in this season.
However, if the Cats don't make the BCS and UofL is the rep, then the Russell Athletic Bowl in Orlando should be our destination. A win over Rutgers would almost assure it. Our fan base has proved it will travel far better than Rutgers. The RA Bowl has the 2nd choice but does not have to take the 2nd place team.
This post was edited by Ragpicker 17 months ago
Good call Greg. It is so ingrained in me that if you play 2 FCS schools you must win 7, but I forgot that assumes you win both of those games.
That said, I put there chances right there with Cuse with having to win 2 of their last 3, which is certainly possible but not likely.
Ahh, those cagey Panthers
That is funny about Pitt. I was thinking 7 wins as well, but when you lose to a 1AA team it doesn't matter.
Correct me if I am wrong, but UNC is not bowl eligible because they like to cheat and get caught.....
I am not sure how the ACC bowl selction is done, but I don't think that the loser of the conference championship game is given the 2 spot. So I am putting FSU and Clemson in the 1 and 2 spot with a possible BCS bowl for Clemson still.
So that means that the Belk and Russel Athletic will be taking 2 of the following (their slotted 3 and 4 teams, but as mentioned it could move up with another BCS team) will not be taking a very good team. Right now it looks like UC would be playing Duke in the Belk Bowl or Miami in the Russel Athletic Bowl.
Correct me if I am wrong, but there is a large Ohio population in North Carolina and a large NY/NJ population in Florida so combine that with our driving distance to NC and I imagine that the bowls would be looking to get us to Belk and Rutgers to Orlando.
Things can still change so other possible teams:
NC State is in the best position there, but none of them are very far ahead of others.
I think it will all come down to who wins the UC Rutgers game. I think that winner will get the Russel Athletic Bowl, but then again I've seen crazy things happen so they could potentially take the loser. In a case where Rutgers somehow wins the BE then I think no question they would take Louisville.
This weeks update:
Tim mentioned somewhere else (I think related to us) that reminded me the newly relaxed rules on 5-7 teams being able to make bowl games this year. I think that puts either Cuse (who may now legitimately qualify with a win over Louisville) or Pitt in the Pinstripe bowl. Could also get one of the others in the BBVA Compass or the St. Pete Bowl I would think we are still in the Belk Bowl worst-case scenario. Looking at the updated projections from ESPN and CBS, they all still have the Cards in the Orange, Rutgers in the RAB and us in the Belk. With Louisville getting beat as soundly as they did yesterday and with a road game against Rutgers remaining, I am surprised none of these guys are putting Rutgers in the Orange. Our various predicted opponents in the Belk include Duke, NC State, and Ga Tech. I am not thrilled with any of those match ups as the in-state schools will have home field advantage and I don't really want to go against an option team (though having several weeks to prepare would help). Still a lot to be decided and obviously our prospects improved greatly this past week. Game against Rutgers will go a long way in determining our Holiday plans. Will be interesting to see if we beat them, if anybody projects us in the RAB or Orange.
Greg - are we assuming Miami willsf impose a bowl ban.
Its logical that they will as they get a major penalty they are likely to incur out of the way in a relatively meaningless year.
I do agree with what Mr. 69 said about it being logical. However, both ESPN guys have Miami as Rutgers' opponent in the RAB and Palm has them playing in the Sun against UCLA.
Another interesting note is Palm has two ACC teams (FSU and Clemson) going to BCS bowls. I would think Bama would give Clemson a healthy thrashing in the Sugar if that scenario plays out.
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