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From my time living in Atlanta I can tell you now that there are far more Georgia, Alabama, and Auburn fans residing in the Atlanta area then there are Georgia Tech fans. One simply has to go to a normal bar or non-affiliated sports bar in the Atlanta area on a Saturday to see that. Getting the Cincinnati games turned on for me in those bars was less of a problem than someone trying to get the GTech game turned on unless that happened to be the week they were playing Georgia.
Yep, similar to Chicago, alums of BIG schools everywhere. Atlanta is SEC central.
I can't say this most recent analysis does anything to boost the credibility of Moose's source in my eyes. In guaging financial impact he has schools lumped together that don't belong there IMO, and his comments rating their growth potentials appear even further off the mark.
It looks like he's focusing too much on population and not enough on other factors. What do UC, Temple, Miami, GT, BC and Pitt have in common? We're all in towns dominated by pro teams, which is a big reason why all these schools have attendance issues, altho each also has other factors unique to its situation. And having to compete against the local pro team and its captive media is a major factor which limits, or at least impacts, the growth potential of all these teams, including us. Temple with great growth potential? Does anyone really believe that?
As for us, I don't know what our potential is. I don't think it's to our credit that our growth has been pretty pedestrian the past 6 years, considering we've been to two BCS bowls and have won 10 games in five of those yrs in a BCS conference. The BE has been a BCS conference with traditional powers and rivals, even if it hasn't been one of the big five. The only two conferences I'm confident would really impact the local psyche are the B10 and tne SEC, neither of which we'll get into. The ACC or B12 would give us a boost, for sure, as long as we're successful, but I also think playing in a 37,000 or so seat stadium could limit our ultimate growth. The main thing is, we HAVE to get into one of them to avoid the alternative scenarios.
Below is my post in the other realignment thread from several days ago. I expect news on the Big 12 intentions by February 2nd.
Louisville to the ACC, and Maryland and Rutgers to the Big Ten woke the Big 12 up. Two schools of thought in the Big 12, add schools that increase the leagues financial wealth, or add schools that can grow and add financial wealth. Who are the schools they can grow? I'm sure they will gather a thorough financial and market analysis to determine who those schools are. How do you determine what an additional 28 million a year would do for UC? What the Big Ten looked at that others hadn't is that the most of the growth in college football over the last 5-10 years has occurred with schools in the lower tier. Facts back this up! The Big Ten also challenged those applying to the Big Ten to present a plan for how being in the Big Ten would help the school grow. Maryland and Rutgers offered great plans, and the Big Ten did their own research on those plans to verify the plan was possible. Schools I know that have put together very detailed plans are Louisville, UC, USF, UCF, Houston, and San Diego State. These schools are growing in many ways, and will continue to grow. UC for example has grown academically and in football, with a rebound in basketball. Louisville, the same as UC, however they have grown their athletics faster than UC, yet academic growth trails UC . UCF is the largest school in the country, has added new athletic facilities. USF has improved academically and like UC meets most criteria of the AAU. Houston has money, is building a new state of the are stadium, renovating their arena, has had football success. San Diego State has become a force in football and now basketball, and is improving academically. These are all schools that a conference can grow, question is who is more attractive to whom?
My point is that if the Big 12 wants to it could take a UC and say USF or UCF and grow them. One could argue in regards to growth potential UC, Houston, USF, and UCF could be your top four schools. They could take these four schools and grow them rather quickly into top programs. I'm not suggesting the Big 12 will do this, I'm just saying do not be surprised if this option is considered.
What I am told by my source told me today is the final outcome.
North Carolina and Virgina Tech to the SEC?
Virginia and North Carolina to the Big Ten?
The stalemate that is playing out like a Poker Game, or is it?
What happened to Georgia Tech? Well, simply put they need Virginia and North Carolina to go to the Big Ten to get a Big Ten offer.
The SEC does not want to expand, they want the ACC to survive. However, the SEC will do what it needs to do to protect the Southeast market.
The Big 12 is making subtle but calculated moves.
Who moves first? I'm told the Big 12, followed by the ACC for survival. The ACC loses Miami and Florida State??? to the Big 12. The ACC counters the loss by adding Cincinnati and South Florida, not UCONN, as the league wants a presence in the state of Florida. The Big 12 satisfies its need for 12 teams, the SEC backs off, as North Carolina and others do not want to leave the ACC, so the Big Ten efforts are shut down.
Why would the ACC take Cincinnati over UCONN? Cincinnati offers a partner to Louisville, and offers more in long term growth.
One thing to keep in mind here is Cincinnati and others remain an option for the Big 12, if Florida State does not accept its invitation. In fact this entire scenario is toast if Florida State does not accept.
Their you have me on record now, that is the information I have been given today as FINAL. I am confident my source is 100% right, and I will go down quietly should he be 100% wrong, with no excuses!!!!
I think that was what I was trying to convey. Atlanta is a town of transplants. Georgia Tech has a much better national reputation than local one. Like UC, they have the issue of pro sports and split allegiances in town. In fact, I think it is even worse for Tech as you illustrated.
This post was edited by CliftonAve 15 months ago
I agree Jerry....and BJ has always said this too...take everything with a grain of salt. A huge grain of salt. No offense meant to Moose, I dont know who he is, so I cant say that I feel he or his source have been vetted any more than ND vetted Te'o in their investigation. Same with the Dude or Greg Swaim. In fact those guys have vested interest in driving traffic to their internet businesses. Even Swaim the other day claimed if you are .300 on this realignment stuff thats good. He attributed that to the ever changing landscape. I attribute it to guessing and bs'ing.
Some other thoughts....
To date, realignment has happened after a lot of speculation (that ended up being wrong - see initial B1G expansion) or out of the clear blue (Maryland and Rutgers....although Rutgers had been speculated on to the B1G and ACC....heck even part of a big eastern Big 12 foray if I recall).
Realignment has happened in small doses. Nebraska. Colorado and Utah (different conferences). Pitt and Syracuse. Texas AM and Missouri. TCU. West Virginia. Maryland and Rutgers (different conferences). Louisville. Talk of 6 leaving a conference at once....or as part of 10 or 12 leaving. Thats a huge upheaval and I am not sure all these presidents are ok with doing that. They might, but up to now it just hasnt happened like that. No movement of 4 to the Pac12 from the Big12 that was widely speculated.
Big12 commissioner made public comment about growing programs. Mentions of Maryland and Rutgers made in conjunction with that comment. FSU and Clemson and UNC and VaTech and Miami dont need "growing". Duke maybe...in football sense. But I havent heard Duke with big12 (not that that means anything). UC however would seem to fit that description.
UC has a lot of things going for it. Good market. Success. Commitment to competitiveness. UC never really promoted itself before. There have been positive tv comments regarding UC (I am not talking about clueless espn broadcasters and pundits).
I personally hope that the ACC survives because I think 4 superconferences is the worst case scenario for college football and college sports. I think its ridiculous and truthfully illegal what is being done and has been done to these conferences and certain schools in particular. You can say its the free market. Ok, I can live with that....but end the tax exempt status for sports revenue and tv revenue for these big businesses. There is no reason that The Ohio State University or the University of Texas should be tax exempt.
Oh well, back to waiting for some real news.....still havent seen any.
This from the Columbus Dispatch indicating, as per Gordon Gee, that expansion in the B1G is ongoing and targets are further South in the East and also in the Midwest.
Ohio State president E. Gordon Gee told the school’s Athletic Council in December that discussions about further expansion for the Big Ten conference are “ongoing.”
Rutgers Undergrad - UC Law School - follow me on Twitter @RUJerry for news about UC, RU and other sports information.
Good reasoned post, Bearcat10. I read the posts and am hopeful, but take it all with a grain of salt because there are too many X factors involved for my comfort level. Moose, I know that you feel confident, and that you have been correct on a few things. I know that I believe UC deserves much, much better than Non-Conference-BECUSA-Hell. But the ??s behind the names in your latest don't instill confidence in me. I sincerely hope it's just 'Doubting Thomas' syndrome with some of us because it's certainly not your reputation we're trying to impugn.
I'll know it's official....when it actually happens and it's posted here in big letters. But I am enjoying the reading and the opinions for sure. And am hopeful as well.
Like I said UC will have choices. Wouldn't it be something if UC made it into the AAU before being extended any offer. That would make it interesting.
As I have said in past posts the Big Ten, SEC, and Big 12 are in a battle for the core of the ACC. This is so obvious one would have to be blind to not see the reality!!!!
In addition to the core of the ACC, Iowa State, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and UConn would do back flips to land in the Big Ten!!!! I have said it before and I will say it again, their is some interest in UC from the Big Ten. Yes, Ohio State is somewhat of an issue, but not as much as one may believe they are.
The SEC does not want the Big Ten in SEC country!!!!! The Big Ten wants to get into the Southeast market, that is where the population and money is!!! If you draw a line from each SEC school, Georgia Tech and Clemson end up right in the middle of the SEC. The SEC wants new markets though, and has interest in the North Carolina and Virgina markets. Does the SEC let the Big Ten get a position in the middle of SEC country, while they go add a North Carolina team and Virgina team? This is the SEC's problem, so they are helping the ACC in every possible way to stay together to block the Big Ten.
Now the SEC and ACC have to worry about the Big 12, who has decided to entertain expansion as they see an opportunity to land Florida State and Miami, and possibly others.
The ACC core as I like to call them, consists of about (8) schools who are resistant to expanding the ACC to protect themselves, Many schools in this core would like to be a 12 team conference in football, and 13 team conference in other sports. Yes they lost Maryland and took Louisville to get back to 14, but it was either that or try and force Wake Forest out.
This is why this is so complicated!!! You have two conferences eyeing the ACC schools, and the SEC helping the ACC keep them at bay. Once one pair of schools move the dominoes will fall fast, guaranteed!!! The Big 12 and Big Ten are the aggressors here, and one of them will make a move soon, my money is on the Big 12.
Moose, let me ask you a question. How does the demise of the ACC benefit ESPN? I am not saying there isnt a case, I just dont see it initially. There is high dollar advertising for football games and basketball games and a network with multiple properties including ABC would presumably be better served with more inventory. In addition, I dont know that per game ratings will increase but you will have to pay more to get those games as demand outpaces supply. I would think pumping up more programs adds to revenue. But I admit I am not a tv exec.
Also what about Notre Dame? If ACC crumbles where do they go? Catholic 7 and indy?
Soooo....you're saying there is a chance.....
LOL, besides ND, who would be 2 midwest?
Notre Dame 1st by far
I wish UC and Pitt!
PS didnt sound good for Syracuse and BC....unless its a diversion!
This post was edited by Bearcat10 15 months ago
ESPN, yes would lose the ACC contract after dissolves, but what do they lose? Do they lose inventory, when they are gaining inventory in other expanded conferences? They don't lose money, actually they save money, while still gaining inventory. Yes, they will renegotiate the contracts for the expanded conferences, but in the end they will save. In my opinion ESPN comes out ahead.
Notre Dame would have no choice but to go to the Catholic 7. The Big Ten does not want them. Notre Dame had an agreement with the Big 12 this summer, only to back out. They burnt the bridge they had to the Big 12. The SEC will not take them in all sports but football. The PAC 12? The PAC 12 doesn't fit Notre Dame's desire to recruit nationwide.
The Big Ten does not want Notre Dame. Notre Dame wants special treatment ala Texas, and the Big Ten will not give them special treatment.
Midwest Candidates = Iowa State, and UC.
Southeast Candidates = Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, and Georgia Tech.
UC is the only non-AAU school, however UC meets AAU criteria and is in consideration for AAU membership.
Do this and post what you come up with;
Add Iowa State, UC, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, and Georgia Tech to the Big Ten. Then divide all 20 members into five team divisions, based on geography with rivalries in mind.
Sounds good in theory....but a) didnt the big12 sign a 13 year deal with FOX last year? b) isnt ESPN contract with Big12 up in 2 or 3 years? c) best case scenario you share ACC games with FOX now instead of having all of that inventory. d) worst case, that espn portion goes bye bye in 2015/2016 to FOX or NBC or CBS.
I expect less of the b1g inventory to be available to networks when their next tv deal comes up. They will push more games to b1g network. Watch. And again, the price ESPN or whomever wins pays for the other remaining games will go up fairly substantially.
In addition, you either lose or have to share or pay more for basketball.
I also think there is real possibility that TV viewership is going to decline as these conferences grow bigger. Less teams in conference title races. More teams disenfranchised and diminished with no championship hopes. Imagine the NCAA tourney without cinderella.
But as I qualified, I am no expert.
This is not the first time the Big Ten has mentioned 16 to 20 school conference. It was mentioned awhile back by another Big Ten President, just can't find the link.
I could easily assemble a 16 team PAC 12 and SEC, with a 20 team Big Ten, and a 16 team Big 12. This is not an issue. The Big Ten wants to go big in numbers, and secure itself for the future in terms of geography and market size. A lot of forward thinking going on in the Big Ten. The Big Ten has to get deeper into the Southeast for market share, while adding schools that fit the Big Ten academically and geographically.
In my opinion the Big 12 sees this and sees the the Big Ten going after the same market it would like to expand to. The Big 12 is on record as saying future consideration of expansion would be EAST.
As I said in a previous post the SEC see's this and is on the defensive, helping the ACC survive. Problem is the SEC Network is hurting the ACC's chance of landing a network, which affects the ACC revenue. Credit to the SEC for assisting the ACC in the playoff setup, but I don't think in the end it will be enough to save the ACC.
Regarding GOR, don't you just hire a lawyer file a law suit?
LOL @ UC having a shot at the B10.
I agree. I just don't see the logic in UC to the Big10 from their standpoint as much as it would be awesome to get the kind of jack the Big10 pays out.
UC is not an AAU member, provides no new media market and sits in the middle of a recruiting are that Big10 schools would not want any more Big10 competition for talent. UC is not a big land grant state school either like most of the Big10 schools.
I'd never say never, because never is a very long time, but I just don't see what would be of value to the Big10 in UC nor do I think UC is an institutional fit either.
And I don't see the Big10 adding UC as a preemptive strike against some other conference adding UC.
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