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What has to happen for #4 seed in Big East Tourney...

  • The tweets from last night and today by the Big East conference and our own Tommy G. almost imply that the Bearcats need to win against Villanova and have ALL of Notre Dame, Georgetown and USF lose. But I don't think that is the case. If I am reading the official Big East tie breaking procedures at http://www.bigeast.org/Sports/MensBasketball.aspx correctly, then I think this is what needs to happen:

    (1) Obviously the Bearcats must first win at Villanova on Saturday @ 2:00 PM in what I expect to be a very difficult game regardless of their season record. Malik Wayns should be available, and we all know what he did to us the first time.

    (2) I don't think it really matters whether Notre Dame wins or loses at home against Providence due to the fact that the Bearcats have wins against both Notre Dame and Georgetown in the event of a four way tie scenario. ND clinches a double bye with a win.

    (3) Georgetown MUST lose at Marquette @ 2:00 PM Saturday because they clinch a double bye with a win, but I think that especially coming off a loss that Marquette could be tough to beat in this one.

    (4) USF MUST lose at home to WVU @ Noon Saturday because otherwise their overall Big East record will be higher than the Bearcats no matter what.

    Assuming the above occurs then you end up with the following 3 team "mini conference" as the Big East refers to it in their tie breaking procedures:

    Bearcats: 12-6
    Georgetown: 12-6
    USF: 12-6

    Each of the teams played each other only once so that winning percentage is equal, with the Bearcats beating Georgetown and losing to USF. Georgetown beat USF and lost to the Bearcats.

    Next you start comparing the win-loss record of each of the tied teams against the teams in the final order of the standings, starting from the top of course. Nobody beat Syracuse, so Marquette would be next. USF only played them once and lost, so they should be eliminated at that point. The Bearcats split with Marquette, as did Georgetown. I believe at that point it reverts to head to head, meaning that the Bearcats would get the final double bye as the #4 seed.

    Check me on this, but it seems to read that way.

    This post has been edited 3 times, most recently by bcatwilly on 3/1/2012 at 11:44 AM

    bcatwilly

  • Thanks for posting. Seems to be right. Regarding point #2 - I've seen on another site a scenario that if ND loses (as well as Georgetown and USF), UC could move into a 3 seed. Not sure if that is accurate or not. Not too realistic anyway. Very doubtful ND loses at home to Providence. But thought I would throw that out there, that game could be significant.

    ucdave ●

  • ucdave said...

    Thanks for posting. Seems to be right. Regarding point #2 - I've seen on another site a scenario that if ND loses (as well as Georgetown and USF), UC could move into a 3 seed. Not sure if that is accurate or not. Not too realistic anyway. Very doubtful ND loses at home to Providence. But thought I would throw that out there, that game could be significant.

    That probably makes sense because the Bearcats would be 2-1 against the other 3 teams in that 4 four way tie, whereas Notre Dame and USF would be 1-2 dropping out. Georgetown would also be 2-1, but as in my 3 way tie scenario it reverts to head to head, meaning the Bearcats would be the #3 seed. I don't see any way that Notre Dame loses at home to Providence though, and fortunately that is one that I don't think we have to get our way to still have a shot at the double bye because it is the least likely outcome in our favor.

    bcatwilly

  • ucdave said...

    Thanks for posting. Seems to be right. Regarding point #2 - I've seen on another site a scenario that if ND loses (as well as Georgetown and USF), UC could move into a 3 seed. Not sure if that is accurate or not. Not too realistic anyway. Very doubtful ND loses at home to Providence. But thought I would throw that out there, that game could be significant.

    I actually think providence vs nd will be a very interesting game.

    IMO if providence can keep cooley in check they should be right in that game

    Xlacrosse1306

  • Bill Koch just posted the following that is in direct contradiction to what I posted, so maybe I am dead wrong. But someone needs to set me straight on why per Bill Koch UC loses a three-way tie with Notre Dame and USF or with Georgetown and USF, but would win a four-way tie with those schools. I agree that we would lose the 3 way tie with only Notre Dame and USF because each would be 1-1 against the others and would then start at the top of the standings which would give it to Notre Dame based on the win over Syracuse. But somebody tell me how the Bearcats would lose in a 3 way tie with Georgetown and USF when each would be 1-1 against the other, nobody beat the 1st place team Syracuse, USF drops out based on 0% winning percentage against the 2nd place team Marquette, UC and Georgetown would have 50% winning percentage against Marquette based on a split in that scenario, with tie breaker reverting to the head to head which goes to UC.

    Again, tell me how we would lose a 3 way tie with Georgetown and USF?

    UC’s Big East seeding possibilities | UC Athletics Blog

    UC still has an outside shot at securing one of the four double byes in next week’s Big East tournament. For that to happen, the Bearcats must win at Villanova on Saturday while Georgetown, Notre Dame and South Florida all lose this weekend. If all that happens, UC gets the No. 3 seed by winning [...]

    cincinnati.com

    bcatwilly

  • For those who want a headache, what follows is the relevant portion of the official Big East tie breaker procedures that I am trying to follow:

    MULTIPLE-TEAM TIE (3 or more teams)
    1. Teams are viewed as a “mini-conference” when comparing head-to-head results.
    The team with the best record (as determined by winning percentage, even if unequal games) vs.
    the other teams in the mini-conference gains the advantage. The team with the worst record (as
    determined by winning percentage, even if unequal games) vs. the other teams in the miniconference
    is seeded the lowest.
    a. If only two teams have the same best winning percentage in the mini-conference, the
    higher seed goes to the team winning the head-to-head series.
    b. If the two teams split their two games, then proceed to Step 2 under Two-Way ties. To
    seed the remaining team(s) in this mini-conference, proceed to (e) below.
    c. If three or more (but not all) teams have the same best winning percentage in the original
    mini-conference, then those tied teams create a new mini-conference and follow this
    same procedure beginning of Step 1 (Multiple Team Tie).
    d. If all teams in the mini-conference have the same mini-conference record, proceed to Step
    2 below.
    e. After the top or bottom teams in a mini-conference are determined, the remaining teams
    are ranked by their record in the original mini-conference.
    i. If there are any remaining teams tied by their record in the mini-conference, then
    head-to-head results will determine the higher seed.
    ii. If the teams split two games, then proceed back to the two-way tie breaking
    procedure.
    iii. If there are at least three teams remaining tied by their record in the miniconference,
    they would then form a new mini-conference and follow the
    procedure again at the beginning of Step 1 (Multiple-Team Tie).

    2. Compare each team’s record vs. the team or group of tied teams occupying the highest position in
    the standings. Continue down through the standings until one or more teams gain an advantage.
    If two teams have the exact same advantage (i.e., having the same and better record against a
    compared team relative to their mini-conference), they are separated at that point by the two-way
    tiebreaker procedure. The next step would take you back to Step 1 (e) (Multiple-Team Tie). When
    comparing records against a single team or collective tied teams (before ties are broken), the
    following may apply:
    a. The games played against the team or group are equal, winning percentage prevails.
    b.If the games played against the team or group are unequal, the following scenarios apply:
    i. Most wins do prevail only if the team(s) with fewer wins could not equal that win
    total if they played the same number of games. Two examples of many scenarios
    that do provide an advantage:
    1) Team A 2-0 2) Team A 3-1
    Team B 1-1 Team B 1-2
    Team C 0-1 Team C 1-2
    ii. Most wins do not prevail if the team(s) with fewer wins could equal or surpass the
    win total of the other team. Two examples of many scenarios that do not provide an
    advantage:
    1) Team A 2-1 2) Team A 1-2
    Team B 1-1 Team B 0-2
    Team C 1-1 Team C 0-2
    iii. Fewer losses do not prevail if the team(s) have the same number of wins, but the
    team with fewer games could equal or surpass the loss total of the other tied teams.
    Two examples of many scenarios that do not provide an advantage:
    1) Team A 2-0 2) Team A 0-2
    Team B 2-1 Team B 0-3
    Team C 2-1 Team C 0-3
    c. If an advantage is not determined, proceed to the next team or group in the standings for
    comparison.
    d. If the tie cannot be broken after continuing down through the last team or teams in the
    standings, revert back to comparing records against the top teams in order and allow
    winning percentage to prevail even if there is a comparison of unequal games. Only then,
    if the percentages are both 1.000, is 2-0 better than 1-0. However, the reverse is not true –
    no team gains advantage when all have a .000 winning percentage (0-1 is never better
    than 0-2).

    bcatwilly

  • bcat i read it like you...i dont know

    Cats1969

  • Cats1969 said...

    bcat i read it like you...i dont know

    I knew that I was right, Bill Koch posted a revised blog update that matches my understanding.

    This is an updated version from the Big East conference after it issued a correction to what it sent me earlier:

    - UC is No. 3 if it beats Villanova, while Notre Dame, Georgetown and USF all lose. UC wins four-way tie at 12-6.

    - UC is No. 4 if it beats Villanova, USF loses to West Virginia, Georgetown loses to Marquette and Notre Dame beats Providence. UC wins three-way tie at 12-6 with USF and Georgetown.

    - UC is No. 5 if it beats Villanova, USF beats West Virginia, Georgetown beats Marquette and Notre Dame loses to Providence. UC wins two-way tie at 12-6 with ND.

    - UC is No. 6 if it beats Villanova, USF loses to West Virginia, Notre Dame loses to Providence and Georgetown beats Marquette. UC loses three-way tie at 12-6 with ND and USF.

    - UC is No. 6 if it beats Villanova, USF beats West Virginia, Notre Dame beats Providence and Georgetown beats Marquette. UC would be only 12-6 team.

    - UC is No. 6 if it loses to Villanova (UC would either be sixth by itself or have a head-to-head tiebreaker against Louisville).

    bcatwilly

  • I think it would really be best to be 6 seed and not face Cuse until the finals. But whatev, beat Nova, the rest sorts itself out and we play what we are dealt

    dabecker

  • This is exactly right. I was bored and wrote it all out on paper. It more simple terms:

    1. UC MUST win (playing Villanova)
    2. South Florida MUST lose (playing West Virginia)
    3. Georgetown MUST lose (playing #7Marquette)
    --AND--
    Notre Dame doesn't matter for a double-bye, but could change seed
    -if Notre Dame loses - UC gets #3 seed
    -if Notre Dame wins - UC gets #4 seed

    nbshelton729

  • I feel good about Marquette winning, I just don't know about WVU though, or us ha.

    tonyt3524 ●

  • tonyt3524 said...

    I feel good about Marquette winning, I just don't know about WVU though, or us ha.

    I don't think WVU can beat USF on the road.
    They have not played well lately.
    They are 3-7 in last 10 games.
    WVU is not a bad road team, but USF is 13-1 at home.

    shaunsimpson ●

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